The Prediction of Suicide (IN: Preventing Youth Suicide: Proceedings of a Conference Held 24-26 July 1990, edited by S McKillop)

In this paper attention will be drawn both to the extent of suicide & suicidal ideation in Australia. The two will be drawn together & reference will be made to two studies which have tried to produce some understanding in the prediction of suicide. Clinical predictors of suicide are briefly outlined. The statistical prediction of suicide is discussed by reviewing studies by Pokorny (1983) & Goldney (1985, 1987). The problem of prediction lies in the low base rate of suicide. (8 refs.)