Year: 1976 Source: Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior, v.6, no.2, (1976), p.86-91 SIEC No: 19820013

Efforts to predict a future event assume varying levels of confidence depending on its base rate & the error rate of the prediction instrument. Applying basic decision theory on a neuropsychiatric hospital population indicates that researchers using a prediction schedule will be unlikely to predict a future suicide beyond a 20% level of accuracy. Contrary to the general clinical view, eliminating false negatives was shown to be more practical than eliminating false positives for prediction.(DD)