Abstract
Predictive accuracy of risk scales following self-harm; Multicentre, prospective cohort study.
Quinlivan, L., Cooper, J., Meehan, D., Longson, D., Potokar, J.Hulme, T., ... Kapur, N.
Background
Scales are widely used in psychiatric assessments following self-harm. Robust evidence for their diagnostic use is lacking.
Aims
To evaluate the performance of risk scales (Manchester Self-Harm Rule, ReACT Self-Harm Rule, SAD PERSONS scale, Modified SAD PERSONS scale, Barratt Impulsiveness Scale); and patient and clinician estimates of risk in identifying patients who repeat self-harm within 6 months.
Method
A multisite prospective cohort study was conducted of adults aged 18 years and over referred to liaison psychiatry services following self-harm. Scale a priori cut-offs were evaluated using diagnostic accuracy statistics. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to determine optimal cut-offs and compare global accuracy.
Conclusions
Risk scales following self-harm have limited clinical utility and may waste valuable resources. Most scales performed no better than clinician or patient ratings of risk. Some performed considerably worse. Positive predictive values were modest. In line with national guidelines, risk scales should not be used to determine patient management or predict self-harm.