Incidence trends and risk prediction nomogram for suicidal attempts in patients with major depressive disorder

Background: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is often associated with suicidal attempt (SA). Therefore, predicting the risk factors of SA would improve clinical interventions, research, and treatment for MDD patients. This  study aimed to create a nomogram model which predicted correlates of SA in patients with MDD within the Chinese population. Method: A cross-sectional survey among 474 patients was analyzed. All subjects met the diagnostic criteria of MDD according to the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision  (ICD-10). Multi-factor logistic regression analysis was used to explore demographic information and clinical characteristics associated with SA. A nomogram was further used to predict the risk of SA. Bootstrap re-sampling was  used to internally validate the final model. Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) and Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) were used to evaluate the capability of discrimination and calibration, respectively. Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was also used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model. Result: Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that being married (OR = 0.473, 95% CI: 0.240 and 0.930) and a higher level of education (OR = 0.603, 95% CI: 0.464 and 0.784) decreased the risk of the SA. The higher  number of episodes of depression (OR = 1.854, 95% CI: 1.040 and 3.303) increased the risk of SA in the model. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.715, with the internal (bootstrap) validation sets was 0.703. The Hosmer– Lemeshow test yielded a P-value of 0.33, suggesting a good fit of the prediction nomogram in the validation set. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that the demographic information and clinical characteristics of SA can be used in a nomogram to predict the risk of SA in Chinese MDD patients.