A Time-Series Analysis of Trends in Firearm-Related Homicide and Suicide

Of the time-related models used to examine a week-by-week count of firearm related homicides & suicides in Capetown, South Africa from 1986-91, the hidden Markov model was the most successful. The 1991 increase shown for homicides is consistent with a reported upsurge in violence. As a methodology for analyzing discrete-valued time series, hidden Markov models may be useful to identify trends/points of transition related to events or interventions in many public health contexts. (33 refs.)