Statistical Concepts of Prediction (IN: Assessment and Prediction of Suicide, edited by R W Maris et al)

Absolute probalistic prediction of any rare event such as suicide, is difficult if not impossible. This chapter surveys statistical methodology available for purposes of estimation & prediction, including the general linear model, logistic regression, alternatives to logistic regression, & log linear models. It notes that statistical methodology is perhaps more useful in identifying groups that are at higher risk than in attempting to predict the suicide of a specific individual. (16 Refs.)