Psychiatrists’ Accuracy in Predicting Violent Behavior on an Inpatient Unit

2 psychiatrists examined 47 new inpatient admissions to a short-term psych treatment unit & predicted whether they would commit battery or demonstrate threatening or suicidal behavior within 7 days. The psychiatrists were not accurate in predicting battery or suicidal behavior but had some efficacy in predicting threatening behaviors. Discharge diagnoses of mania were useful for predicting battery & threatening behavior. The use of likelihood ratios to conceptualize predictive data is described.