Increased risk of suicide due to economic and social impact of social distancing measures to address the Covid-19 pandemic: A forecast

Background. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic there have been unprecedented increases in unemployment and social isolation nationally and globally. Predicting suicide rates as a result of this pandemic can provide information about the potential mental health ramifications and supports that may be needed. This article aims to forecast the potential increased incidence of suicide due to the economic and social impacts of the social distancing measures in place to address the Covid-19 pandemic. Methods. Authors identified available evidence to develop a statistical forecast using previous estimates of the impact of unemployment and social isolation on suicide rates as well as predicted unemployment data and social isolation data. Findings. The increased rate of suicide worldwide due to increased unemployment and social isolation could be close to 50,000 individuals based on initial estimates of these collateral impacts. Interpretation. Policy, funding, and interventions to address the mental health impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is needed. The model can be applied to predict additional localized or regional effects. The efforts to stop the spread of Covid-19 can be weighed against these potential collateral mental health effects.